Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’



The new study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research announced today that employers in three sectors employing large numbers of EU migrants – hospitality, food and drink, and construction – reveal they were unprepared for the Leave result and believe it is bad for business.

According to the study employers were surprised by June’s referendum result and some expressed strong feelings including ‘shock’, ‘horror’ and even devastation. Employers are worried about recruitment once free movement ends, are concerned for the wellbeing of their EU workers who have been left in the dark about their future and they want a say in future immigration policy.

The research with 17 employers with workforces of between 30 and 15,000, reveals their EU workers feel they are unwelcome in the UK and have even experienced hostile comments from customers. This led many to issue reassuring messages about the value of EU migrants to the business.

The research reveals:

  • Few employers sent out information to their workforces about the referendum before the vote but many regretted not doing so.
  • Workplace discussion about the referendum has been livelier after polling day than before.
  • A number of employers have needed to put in place policy to deal with xenophobic incidents involving the public towards their EU employees.


Employers say their preference is for free movement to continue. They cannot see how a points-based system, often proposed during the referendum campaign, could work in low-skilled sectors. They are interested in the use of sector-based schemes but are concerned that any system should involve minimal additional cost and bureaucracy. They are also concerned that any visa systems will not allow them to respond quickly to fluctuating labour requirements.

britihs flag

The study re-interviewed employers who took part in research on free movement before the referendum. Following the Leave result a number are looking more seriously at how they might recruit more UK workers but can see no easy answers. The CEO of a bakery company employing 280 staff, including 168 EU migrants, stated:

“The outer’s view is that migration will stop and we’ll suddenly have a sensible level of tens of thousands net migration whereas anybody I know who works in a food manufacturing industry is thinking ‘oh crikey, if that happens, we’re going to be seriously stuffed in terms of what we can do to make food’.”

Dr Heather Rolfe, Associate Research Director at NIESR, said:

“Like many people, employers were not prepared for the Leave result. But unlike others, employers have already felt the impact and have needed to reassure worried EU workers. They feel regret that they were not more involved in the campaign and that business failed to convey to the public how changes to the economy impacts on people’s lives”.

“As we negotiate our way out of the EU, politicians need to minimise damage to businesses and individuals. A new immigration policy should be formed in consultation with employers, among others.”

Dr Rolfe wrote on her recent article at NIESR that while the referendum results took immediate and devastating effects on migrant employers, who received racist attacks from their customers and co-workers British employers who were described as “jubilant” will be experiencing the same effects next year when the Article 50 is triggered.

The manager of a holiday resort chain stated:

“The general flavor that I got back from EU workers was discontent, concern that English people do not like them being here and what is their future going to be.”

“Employers should be involved in shaping immigration policies; beyond immediate concerns for their businesses and their EU workers, employers are worried about an end to free movement and want a say in future policy. “ further explained Dr Rolfe in her article today.


National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) launched its latest economic review at the organization’s quarterly press conference yesterday in Westminster, London.

According to NIESR’s review of UK economy, GDP is to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016 and drop to 1 per cent in 2017 and will continue to deteriorate in the third and fourth quarter. Inflation  is to increase and peak at 3 percent at the end of 2017.

UK will barrow additional £47 billion within the next five years, the forecast predicted.

Simon Kirby, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR, who presented UK economy at the conference explained that :“We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017. There is an evens chance of a ‘technical’ recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term. In light of the downturn underway and the downside risks to the outlook, a decision by the MPC to provide monetary stimulus would be welcome and we look forward to assessing the new Chancellor’s plans at the Autumn Statement.”

recession after brexit

NISER expects the unemployment rate to rise  from 4.8 per cent in the second quarter of  2016  to a peak of around 5,75 per cent in the middle of 2017.The organization estimates that the economy will shrink in 2016Q3 and lead to a recession at some point during the period 2016Q3 to 2017Q4, inclusive.

Dr Angus Armstrong, Director of Macroeconomics at NIESR, presented the organization’s  forecast of the world economy following Simon Kirby. According to the forecast the world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2016 and peak at 3.5 percent in 2017.  Inflation is likely to be below target in the OECD economies in 2017. The European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to ease monetary conditions while the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates gradually.

“Re-joining EFTA (European Free Trade Association) is consistent with the notion of ‘taking back control’. This will result in less economic integration with the EU and so lower productivity and output over the medium term. The critical issue is whether the UK can strike deep trade deals with our trading partners elsewhere.  This could be  joining the Trans Pacific Partnership or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. At this stage both face significant challenges due to lack of popular support,” said Dr Armstrong at the press conference.

Forecast shows that Brazil, Japan and Russia economies are to grow . India is likely to remain the fastest growing major economy. The US is expected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2017, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates only very gradually. Inflation is expected to be slightly lower .OECD average inflation will remain well below central banks’ targets through to 2018. The exception is the UK where a short-term rise reflecting the depreciation of sterling is expected, NIESR’s forecast indicated.

Brexit Letter to David Cameron

It was almost three years after the great recession and the UK economy showed no sign of growth. Everyone looked for someone to blame. So did the new enthusiastic Prime Minister, David Cameron.  Politicians, bankers, economists, ministers.Oh no they were too powerful to attack! Public needed someone or some groups who were well weakened, had little rights to defend themselves, whose skin colors were slightly darker than theirs, whose genders were not yet fully accepted or recognized, whose religion was already stigmatized. And there were three groups of people who met all those criteria.Muslims, immigrants and women.

David Cameron, whose incompetency no longer needs a proof, was quick enough to develop extreme anti-immigration policy.He spread strong nationalist sentiment across the country to the point of racism which caused young, angry, frustrated youth to attack Muslims and immigrants explicitly. Surely, short sighted prime minister could not see how the same bullet was going to kill him only after five years. And then that shameless big van! They drove it around London streets and ordered immigrants to go home! Well,their homes were now battlefields! Thanks to Compassionate Conservative PM and his democracy distributor, human rights protector, oil hungry allies! They had no home to return! Where could they go? Weren’t they in the heaven of democracy?


In the meantime, scandalous MPs’ expenses were exposed. Government bailed out too big to fail banks for messing up with the public.What was wrong with that?PM Cameron, who once defined himself as compassionate conservative,continued attacking the weakest groups of the public instead. Muslims, immigrants and women!He forced them to pay the price through austerity measures in his best capacity. Unemployed youth mirrored the same rottenness back at him; explosive riots and embarrassing looting began while women and immigrants quietly paid the price. But wasn’t unemployment also immigrants’ fault? Of course, too big to fail dodgy banks were right, they had done nothing wrong,it was all immigrants’ fault!

bloody foreigner 7

And now Brexit! Why do you even look surprised Dear Mr Cameron? Isn’t that what you were supposed to reap after  what you sowed in the British public’s heart? Politics is a serious business Dear Prime Minister! You cannot play with public sentiments!Let me tell you how you will be remembered dear very Compassionate Conservative! You will be remembered as someone who spread hatred in such a beautiful land like England instead of love! Someone who was not even capable to clean up his own mess but quickly resigned when the truth began to shine in the end! Now, everyone knows that none of those was immigrants’ fault, after all! I hope you get better dear Compassionate Conservative! I hope you learn how to love!

Here is the novel I wrote while you were busy torturing the immigrants including myself!It is called “The Bloody Foreigner”. I am only able to publish it now. After disastrous Brexit. That was because everyone thought that you were right before Brexit accident.They sincerely believed you.I was weakened to my marrows to defend myself.Eventually I began hating myself after all your anti-immigration attacks that lacked compassion. Every immigrant hated themselves as you made the public hate them. So I quietly left your land. I am still recovering from all that I experienced if you care to know at all.

Now I cannot even imagine how awful it must be to be an immigrant in England. I have read about anti-immigration attacks in London, Birmingham on the internet. I am sincerely sorry to hear that.And I am sorry for all the innocent people, who will have to suffer from the consequences of the Brexit.

However I still dedicate this novel to you! To the Compassionate Conservative. I dedicate it to all immigrant haters to say that LOVE is the only solution. Please read it when you think you are finally able to empathize for other human beings. So that you can appreciate the painful journey of my immigrant protagonist! Consequences of Brexit will also help you with that…Like no little immigrant ever could…

Brexit was not an accident Dear Prime Minister.It was the Universal Justice which usually occurs free from governments.

With love and peace,

A Bloody Foreigner.