Posts Tagged ‘EU’

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) launched its latest economic review at the organization’s quarterly press conference yesterday in Westminster, London.

According to NIESR’s review of UK economy, GDP is to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016 and drop to 1 per cent in 2017 and will continue to deteriorate in the third and fourth quarter. Inflation  is to increase and peak at 3 percent at the end of 2017.

UK will barrow additional £47 billion within the next five years, the forecast predicted.

Simon Kirby, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR, who presented UK economy at the conference explained that :“We expect the UK to experience a marked economic slowdown in the second half of this year and throughout 2017. There is an evens chance of a ‘technical’ recession in the next 18 months, while there is an elevated risk of further deterioration in the near term. In light of the downturn underway and the downside risks to the outlook, a decision by the MPC to provide monetary stimulus would be welcome and we look forward to assessing the new Chancellor’s plans at the Autumn Statement.”

recession after brexit

NISER expects the unemployment rate to rise  from 4.8 per cent in the second quarter of  2016  to a peak of around 5,75 per cent in the middle of 2017.The organization estimates that the economy will shrink in 2016Q3 and lead to a recession at some point during the period 2016Q3 to 2017Q4, inclusive.

Dr Angus Armstrong, Director of Macroeconomics at NIESR, presented the organization’s  forecast of the world economy following Simon Kirby. According to the forecast the world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2016 and peak at 3.5 percent in 2017.  Inflation is likely to be below target in the OECD economies in 2017. The European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to ease monetary conditions while the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates gradually.

“Re-joining EFTA (European Free Trade Association) is consistent with the notion of ‘taking back control’. This will result in less economic integration with the EU and so lower productivity and output over the medium term. The critical issue is whether the UK can strike deep trade deals with our trading partners elsewhere.  This could be  joining the Trans Pacific Partnership or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. At this stage both face significant challenges due to lack of popular support,” said Dr Armstrong at the press conference.

Forecast shows that Brazil, Japan and Russia economies are to grow . India is likely to remain the fastest growing major economy. The US is expected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2017, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates only very gradually. Inflation is expected to be slightly lower .OECD average inflation will remain well below central banks’ targets through to 2018. The exception is the UK where a short-term rise reflecting the depreciation of sterling is expected, NIESR’s forecast indicated.


Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held a press conference in Bloomberg News Channel today in London to discuss  Turkey’s economic and political significance in the Middle East and in the world.

Erdogan’s schedule for the day has  included meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron and his deputy Nick Clegg as well as The Quinn to discuss recent  international intervention in Libya, its reflection on the global economy  and Turkey’s key role in the region.

Turkish Prime Minister  expressed that he was very happy to see Turkey’s recent economy that has tremendously grown since his party came to power more than eight years ago. Economic growth rate of the country in 2010q4 was 9.2%,Erdogan stressed.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers his speech on Turkey's role in the Middle East Peace at Bloomberg in London today.

Turkey attracts ($12,5billion a year) international investment  due to trustworthy and consistent manner of his government, according to Erdogan. The construction sector is growing rapidly in Turkey. While unemployment rate is increasing in the globe it has been decreasing in Turkey and now it is only 11.9%.Erdogan also mentioned the election that will be held on 12th June in Turkey. However he added that his government didn’t need to make any specific budged for the election.

Erdogan took questions after his speech. When asked how he thinks the situation in the Middle East can change, Erdogan said he visited Ghaddafi when the uprising sparked for the first time in Libya.He asked Ghaddafi to release Turkey’s  and other countries’ citizens. Even though Ghaddafi promised to do so he was not able to act on the issue. However , said  Erodogan “Turkey managed to  release 20 000 Turks and 5000 foreigners ,that includes English people, from Libya.”

“Libya wants ceasefire but they don’t know the content of it, they can’t describe it. They couldn’t answer whether they want democratic regime or not which held Turkey back .” said Erdogan.NATO’s intervention should be on the ground of international law, it should be supported by the region, there should not be any obstacle to provide humanitarian aid during the intervention, according to Turkish Prime Minister. “Turkey is ready to provide humanitarian aid to Libya. My biggest hope is that Libya not  be like Afghanistan and Iraq and we bring peace to Libya soon.However it is not easy to transform autocracy to democracy and it takes time.” added Erdogan.

Bloomberg Spokesman mentioned Turkey’s effort to rescue a journalist of the Guardian and of NewYork Times from Libya.

When asked whether Europen Union is still Turkey’s priority as the country performed remarkably well during the recession and is still growing rapidly, Erdogan was pleased to receive this question and said:

EU is a project of modernity for Turkey however  EU is not very keen to accept Turkey and no country has ever been kept waiting for that long .Turkey’s first application for EU was done in 1959.Turkey is more developed than many of the EU members with its economy and democracy. Turkey will make EU stronger while gaining strength from it.However EU is no longer able to support its members like it used to do.”

Turkish Prime Minister said that EU had only 15 members when Turkey applied for membership in 1959.Since then, EU accepted 12 more countries to the club and its decisions have always been political. The main political concern that stopped EU from accepting Turkey is Cyprus.

“We say be fair, don’t act like a Christian Club like you do now. You don’t accept Turkey because it s a muslim country. However Muslim world believes that Turkey’s membership will be bridge between Christian and Muslim World.The world should serve for peace not for terrorism. But EU has a habit of changing the rules of penalty during the match. Turkey will be developing with or without EU!” said Erdogan and left Bloomberg to visit the Quinn.

Islamic Ideology of Iran killed Neda Agha Soltan  on 20 June 2009 however she has  remained as a symbol of freedom  in millions of people’s mind in Iran and in many other countries. Amnesty International UK  screened the documentary movie  of Neda’s life on 05.06.2010  on the anniversary of her death at  the Human Rights Action Centre.

Neda has become a symbol of freedom soon after her death.

HBO production  documentary which is directed by Anthony Thomas will meet audiences at Frontline Club on 09.06.2010 at 7.00pm.”Channel4 has also promised to show the documentary some time in July.” ,said Thomas.

Young  Iranian undercover journalist Saeed Kamali Dehgan  has secretly  interviewed Neda’s  mother ,father and sister for the documentary  ,to show  why she died and what she  stood for in life.Ahmadinejad Government banned Neda’s family to talk to any publication after her death.

Neda’s doctor and her music teacher, who  were with her when she was shot , tell us every moment of  Neda’s death in the movie.

“She hated  control when she was only 3 years old. She was the first girl in the school who refused to wear scarf.” ,says Neda’s  tearful mum.

“She used to tell me that ‘Women in Iran can not live like a human .’” ,says  her brother who has not shaved his beard and mustache and had hair cut since Neda’s death according to Iranian traditions.

“Women are supposed to be invisible in Iran. Women’s bodies are controlled ,their dignity and freedom  are taken from them.” , says Iranian author .

The documentary also  enlightens  us  about fundamental problems of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad‘s regime by interviewing  many other Iranian  scientists ,authors, spokesperson of International Human Rights Community and Department of  State .

Director Thomas and Iranian  journalist Dehgan answered audiences’ questions about their work on documentary after showing it at the Human Rights Action Centre.

What exactly happened that millions of Iranians poored to the streets on 13.06.2009?Iran held presidential election on 12.06.2009.The next morning  the Islamic Republic News Agency announced that Ahmadinejad had won the election with 62% votes cast who had been in power since 2005.The European Union, the UK and the US and many other western countries express their concerns about authenticity of the results.

While Iranians were expecting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make a statement to change the direction of the election ,he urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad even after five years of his dictatorship in Iran.

The moment Neda was shot at the protest on 2o June 2009.

Iraninans were not happy,they did not want Ahmedinejad’s dictatorship for another five years.On the following day millions of them were on the street  to fight for their votes to be heard  and bring  oppositions party leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi ‘s  into power  who received only 34% of the votes.They stayed on  the street to refuse the election result for seven days.

However, Iranian military force covered all the streets on 20 June 2009  to end ongoing protests. That was not  enough to keep Neda  and many other fearless Iranians  in their homes. It was blood, violence ,screams  everywhere.Many died,some injured but Ahmedinejad remained in power.

5000 people arrested ,115 convicted prisoners  were executed after 20 June 2009 but demonstrations did not stop.80 more  protests have been recorded since then.

Since the election Iranian Government have arrested and detained more than 30 journalists and photographers.